The minister said it was her “hope and wish” that the final report into fracking for shale gas in the Karoo indicated that reserves could be extracted and exploited safely should they be proven.

“It is my wish and prayer on a daily basis that when the report is tabled [before Cabinet] that it says, yes the gas is there and you can extract it safely for the benefit for the people of South Africa,” Peters said.

“Let’s not pretend it’s a swear word … Imagine the day they say we have gas in South Africa, what that [would mean] for jobs, for security of supply,” said Peters.

She pointed to the already extensive intellectual capital has in the form of gas to liquid fuel technology, which companies such as Sasol are built on.

Peters was clarifying her remarks on fracking, reported in Business Report earlier in the week.

But she said she would abide by whatever decision Cabinet ultimately took on the issue.

Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing injects a mixture of water and chemicals into deep shale rock formations, to extract trapped gas.

It can then be used to fuel closed cycle gas turbines to generate electricity.

The method is highly controversial, and is criticised by environmental groups notably for its threat to scarce water reserves in the arid Karoo region.

Critics view renewable energy such as solar power as a far more sustainable way to create energy as well as employment in the region.

Implications for nuclear?
There is growing uncertainty regarding South Africa’s ability to build, maintain and regulate six new nuclear power stations, equivalent to 9 600 MW, as outlined in government’s electricity road map, the integrated resource plan of 2010 (IRP2010).

Gas-fired electricity, in the meantime, is emerging as a possible solution to the country’s electricity shortages, if not an outright alternative to nuclear power. Aside from being much cheaper, it is less carbon intensive than coal fired power, and power stations can be built relatively swiftly when compared to large units for coal or nuclear plant.

The national planning commission is strongly supportive of a gas alternative in its national development plan.

Peters confirmed that the timelines for the nuclear build set out on the IRP2010 have already been delayed by a year.

The first nuclear power station is set to come on stream in 2023, according to the IRP, meaning it would now only come online in 2024.

Nuclear power plants are very expensive however and the industry is characterised by long lead times in construction. It is unclear if even a 2024 deadline could be met.

‘Prophecy’
Government has refused to give specifics on what the nuclear build programme might cost the country. It has indicated that it could be a minimum of R300-billion. But research by the Mail & Guardian’s investigative unit Amabhungane indicates that in fact, it could cost the country over R1-trillion.

When asked if a potential gas windfall could force government to rethink its nuclear strategy, the minister said she did not want to attempt “prophecy”.

The development of further local gas infrastructure still needed to take place, and would take some time Peters pointed out.

“We can’t say now that we are not going to engage on nuclear. Nuclear is also part of our industrialisation plans for the country,” she said.

Shale gas would however make a significant contribution to future questions of security of supply, contributing to South Africa’s bid to become self-reliant for both electricity and liquid fuels.

Peters indicated however that government was in talks over the operations of state owned oil company Petro SA. While she declined to give further details, she indicated that it had to have the capacity to play a role in the development of any potential shale gas industry.

A national nuclear energy executive committee (NNEEC) headed by Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe, was established last year to oversee the procurement process. The committee has yet to have its first meeting. Peters said however it would meet at the end of the month.

It’s not just the money
Aside from the costs of nuclear procurement the capacity of the National Nuclear Regulator to oversee a further six nuclear power stations, has been highlighted by the International Atomic Energy Agency as something the country needs to address.

Peters said the planned 9 600MW of nuclear will more than double the NNRs work.

The minister said the NNR has been requested to assess its systems, operational structures, as well as its legislative framework in a bid to identify shortcomings.

This extended to the question of governance and the NNR’s board, which was being examined to ensure that it had the requisite expertise in place to provide proper oversight.

Lynley Donnelly – Mail & Guardian

University of Cape Town professor Michael Meadows and others found that winter rainfall for the province would decrease as the planet warmed due to a build-up of greenhouse gases.

Some projections estimated that annual rainfall would reduce between 10 to 30% in winter rainfall zones by 2050, threatening more than 5 500 endemic plant species.

“These plants are tough and they are already used to dry conditions. But further aridity could make fires more frequent as well, which could damage the soils and make it even harder for the native plants to survive here,” Meadows said in a statement.

“Unfortunately, this is their only native habitat, so such a change here might eventually threaten their very existence.”

The project was funded by the National Science Foundation in the US, and published in the Climate of the Past  journal recently.

The scientists extracted earth sediment samples from Verlorenvlei, an elongated former estuary at Eland’s Bay on the West Coast. They also looked at ice core data from Antarctica.

Through the samples they reconstructed the history of the lake level fluctuations over the past 1800 years to show past rainfall patterns in the area.

It’s this type of behaviour that triggers power shortages and outages during winter. The season’s daily power peak, which starts at 5pm, when families start trickling home from work, and ends at 9pm, when everyone begins moving towards their beds, can push power usage up 5 000 megawatts on summer’s peak usage.

This is more power than the 3 600MW SA’s biggest power station can produce, making it a considerable factor in dealing with power demand. “There is a bit of difference throughout the day (between summer and winter), but the real difference is the pattern of demand,” says Eskom spokeswoman Hilary Joffe.

Eskom’s grid has a total capacity of about 41 000MW, but is frequently not functioning at this level because of planned and unplanned outages.

On Monday the country’s capacity was at 35 056MW to meet a forecasted 33 097MW peak usage.

Current planned maintenance and outages have taken about 8 000MW off the grid. But during winter last year, peak usage went up to highs of 37 000MW, meaning that at current functionality, demand would outweigh supply.

But Joffe says that by mid-winter, planned maintenance will have decreased significantly.

“We said all along that the system would be very tight… Late next year (when the first phase of construction of Medupi power plant in Limpopo is complete) the constraint on supply will ease significantly.”

However, she admits that some planned maintenance and unplanned outages will continue throughout winter, as maintenance has become an essential for the parastatal. “For a few years now, we had been deferring non-essential maintenance, but you cannot carry on doing that, it’s not sustainable.

“The non-essential becomes essential… and the performance of the system wanes.”

She says Eskom has made maintenance a priority and performed more maintenance in winter last year than usual.

Citizens can help to keep the power on by paying attention to daily peaks and using non-essential appliances when demand is lower.

“The first train is operational at the western basin, treating 10 megalitres a day,” water affairs chief operations officer Trevor Balzer said in Cape Town.

“By early next week, the second train will be operational, which will take us to the full 24 megalitres of discharge from the basin.”

A “train” is a series of tanks with mixers, used for sludge removal in the treatment operation.

Balzer said at a media briefing at Parliament, ahead of debate in the National Assembly on the department’s budget, water affairs would continue to monitor the situation “to see how we draw down the water level and that [the] decant stops”.

In her speech written for delivery in the House, water affairs Minister Edna Molewa said she was happy to announce that the short-term solution for the western basin – treating the AMD – was in place.

However, she warned that the long-term solution for the entire Witwatersrand, which also includes the central and eastern basins, would require a lot of money.

“[It] will clearly need a lot of money and we need to be creative in how we approach the funding requirement in this regard.”

Molewa said she had instructed her department, in partnership with the department of mineral resources, to “explore the possibility of testing potential solutions in the open market to deal with AMD, but without compromising prescribed government procurement processes”.

Earlier, she warned that, left unmanaged, the 200 million litres a day overflow of AMD “may pollute surface and groundwater resources in the area and place severe risks on the security of water supply from the Vaal River system”.

Traditionally, South Africa has 15-year wet and dry cycles. The general trend indicates that the next dry cycle should start this year. But since the dawn of democracy unusually high levels of rainfall have made water seem limitless and its price has stayed low, says Dr Theo de Jager, vice president of AgriSA.

At the moment the country produces a surplus from farming, even though it is the third-driest country per capita in the continent, he said. But with growing water costs and lower rainfall looming this could dramatically change, he said.

“The current government has never had to manage a drought … You think people are angry about e-Tolls, imagine how angry they will be when the costs of their food shoot up as harvests drop,” he warned.

This comes after a recent announcement by Edna Molewa, minister of environmental affairs, that due to infrastructure costs water tariffs would probably be increasing at a rate exceeding inflation.

Risk to development
“The changing climate means that the value of water has to be seen differently,” says Dr Antony Turton, a private water expert. Instead of it being a resource that has to be bought from the department of water affairs, “it has to be seen as a risk to development, much like climate change. Any future plans therefore have to involve a lowering of water intensity and trade-offs between the different sectors of the economy.”

The psychology also has to change, says Turton. Every drop of water has to be seen as “borrowed” from the cycle, and then returned. “Water can’t just be poured out of a tap, paid for, and then forgotten. People have to understand that water cannot be created and what we have now is as much as there ever will be.”

This will encourage a view of water as a resource that belongs equally to everyone, and will move people towards conserving and reusing it.

South Africa does not have a monopoly on problems with water supply, and may benefit from seeing how other countries are dealing with the broader implications of scarcity issues.

Dr Delli Priscoli, a senior advisor at the United States Army Corps of Engineers, says South Africa is beginning to face the same problem as his own country: how to reallocate water between sectors. In a developing country, the problem is normally how to get water to people, but here the government now has to decide which sectors are the most important and need preferential access.

But he believes this is one area where people do come across the lines that divide them to find equitable solutions. “Water is essential for all the core drivers of economic growth and because we all rely on it, we talk about it and work out fair allocations,” says Priscoli. “We do not fight over it … and this makes it a force of social cohesion.”

Priscoli says discussions about water should extend across the whole of sub-Saharan Africa. Every major river in the continent runs through several countries, so they depend on each other.

A solution for the southern tip of the continent would be to grow the agricultural sectors of countries such as Zambia, where there is more than enough rainfall.

Johan van Rooyen, the national director of planning at the department of water affairs, believes this would reduce the burden on South Africa to provide cheap water for irrigation—over 60% of our water is used for irrigation—and also stimulate neighbouring countries.

South Africa would be able to import the food Zambia grows and also get growing markets for its own goods.

Van Rooyen says that as climate change progresses, along with the expected drop in rainfall, this would help mitigate many of the problems that the country faces with ensuring food security.

Farming out production to other countries is a global trend, say Margaret Catley-Carlson, patron of the Global Water Partnership. As prosperity increases, people start accessing food that requires more water to produce. With each calorie we consume taking one litre of water to produce, and with a booming population, this is not sustainable in water-scarce regions, she said.

Already, countries like Israel are stopping local production of water-intensive crops, preferring instead to import them. They are now choosing “the most sensible crop-per-drop”, she said. In the case of South Africa this should mean a “serious look” at the viability of thirsty crops such as sugarcane, she says.

By relying on this “virtual water” from its neighbours the country should then be able to free water for other economic activities.

“It does seem there is merit, from our own perspective as a department, on exceptional experimental work that would have to be undertaken under highly-controlled conditions,” she told a media briefing at Parliament.

The department had said so in recent written inputs to the inter-departmental task team, set up just over a year ago by Mineral Resources Minister Susan Shabangu to investigate fracking.

Ngcaba said these would now have to be considered by Shabangu, and the various options examined before her team finalised a report for Cabinet.

There would have to be a “clear understanding” of the technologies that would be used to extract the shale gas.

She said her department’s inputs had noted, in particular, “the avoidance of the contamination of fresh water resources” in the Karoo region.

Further, there should be understanding that carrying out fracking operations “would require an enormous amount of water”, and that the Karoo was dry.

Fracking involves pumping a mixture of water, sand and chemicals at high pressure down a borehole into the rock strata containing the shale gas.

The process releases the gas, which flows out of the borehole to the surface, where it is captured and contained.

Square Kilometre Array

Ngcaba said environmental affairs had also raised concerns in its inputs about the use of shale gas, a fossil fuel, and the impact of doing so on South Africa’s greenhouse gas emissions profile.

It had also noted that fracking could have an impact in the area set aside for construction of the Square Kilometre Array radio telescope.

Speaking at the briefing, Environment and Water Affairs Minister Edna Molewa said Shabangu was expected to table her team’s report on fracking to Cabinet.

She also said further discussion was needed on water matters before this could be done.

“We obviously would need to just jointly do a bit of work in that regard.”

Molewa told journalists Shabangu was “not withholding the report, but just finalising a few things that need to be looked at”.

Earlier this year, Shabangu said the report would go to Cabinet on March 31.

In that month, business consultancy Econometrix said in a report that if the amount of shale gas – lying about 4 000 to 5 000m below the Karoo surface – was confirmed, it could provide the equivalent of 400 years’ worth of energy consumption in South Africa.

It called for the government to get moving on exploring the potential of its suspected shale gas fields.

Mighty big fish

“This is big stuff in terms of contribution to GDP, in terms of employment potential. Even if the gas finds turn out to be a lot smaller than the estimate… we are talking about a mighty big fish,” Econometrix economist Tony Twine said at the time.

The Karoo shale gas was currently only a “suspected resource” of about 485 trillion cubic feet.

If this was correct – and using a projection model of four percent of the estimated resource – there could be, according to the report, an annual economic impact of more than R80bn to the country’s GDP.

Several companies, including oil giant Shell, are seeking permission to explore for shale gas across tens of thousands of square kilometres of the Karoo.

Environmentalists, landowners and others are opposed to this, saying fracking could contaminate groundwater in the region.

The fierce debate prompted Shabangu to last year declare a moratorium on fracking until her team had completed its investigations.

Wednesday’s media briefing comes ahead of debate in the National Assembly later in the day on environmental affairs’ 2012/13 budget.

Organised by the Duzi Umgeni Conservation Trust (Duct), the walk is starting at Umgeni vlei – the plateau above Dargle and Fort Nottingham – and will end on May 27 at Blue Lagoon, Durban, where the river meets the Indian Ocean.

“What we hope to achieve is to get a complete picture from source to sea of the condition of the river. Get people to realise that we all have to do our bit or we will have no water and no river.

“We want to grow Mayday for Rivers from the Umgeni to all over SA and the world,” Duct member Penny Rees said.

The team of six will be documenting and recording all impacts on the river and posting daily stories of their adventures and findings on their blog. http:/umngeniriverwalk.wordpress.com/

Rees said treating water is costly, so apart from increasing the capacity of the sewage handling system, the country needs to also enforce tougher laws to hinder industries that dump toxic waste into the rivers.

“This is a massive problem on the Umgeni River – sections of the river are totally choked with hyacinth, and Albert Falls Dam is predicted to be as green as pea soup in 10 years if the sewage flow into the tributaries is not stopped, she said.

During the walk, Duct hopes to teach the communities and nearly 119 schools along the river about the negative impacts of pollution and how to take care of the rivers.

The aim of the campaign is to also implement the Durban Green Corridor idea from The Green Hub at Blue Lagoon to Nottingham Road.

The Umgeni River is the sole supplier of water to communities such as Wartburg, Hilton, Eston, Vulindlela, Botha’s Hill, Pietermaritzburg and Durban

Environmentalist Jay Naidoo said the walk by Duct will raise public awareness regarding the importance of the river and the causes of its current decline.

According to the Midland Conservancies Forum a systematic assessment of river biodiversity in South Africa found that 84% of river ecosystems are threatened with 54% critically endangered.

Another study of the environmental degradation of 126 countries listed SA as fourth from the bottom – one of the worst in the world.

South Africa, Angola, Botswana, Zambia and Namibia signed a declaration to launch the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management in the Namibian capital Windhoek.

Set up with €50-million in German aid, the centre will streamline regional scientific research on climate change trends and on managing natural resources to deal with them.

“This initiative will bring knowledge, data, information and services generated by our own scientists with support of their colleagues from Germany,” Zambian science minister John Phiri said at the launch.

Research institutions of all the countries will study climate and its impact on water resources, forests, agriculture and wildlife.

The centre will coordinate the research and sharing of information, with a secretariat based in Windhoek.

“We want to define the priority areas where knowledge is needed to adapt to climate change and to mitigate its effects, to provide sound recommendations freely available to all interested parties,” said German science minister Annette Schavan, who attended the launch.

A similar centre was recently set up among 10 West African countries, also supported and funded by Germany. — Sapa-AFP

Diepsloot was at a standstill on Wednesday as a water crisis entered its sixth day, with no official word on when residents could drink from taps again.

The focus of life in the informal settlement, north of Johannesburg, is now water as men, women and children stand in long queues waiting for trucks to bring drinking water.

Problems began last Thursday when a contractor upgrading infrastructure accidentally broke a water pipe which was then contaminated with sewage, affecting the water supply to the whole area.

Communal taps were pouring clear water on Wednesday as Johannesburg Water flushed the pipes to ensure all signs of bacteria were gone.

“We were told by the police that there was poison in the water and we must not drink it,” said resident Johanna Matlhadisa.

“We are too scared to touch it, never mind to drink it,” she said.

Mpho Dumiso said she needed water to make mielie pap, the staple of her family.

“We are eating bread and drinking Coke but we want to cook now, my baby wants pap; really, we can’t go on like this.”

Grade 11 Iterele High School pupil, Vinas Macefane, said she had not been to school this week because she couldn’t wash and her school clothes were dirty.

“We also don’t have anything to drink at school and we can’t flush the toilets.”

Mother of two Lucia Maswanganye said some of her neighbours were buying water from other communities, who were charging R15 for 25 litres.

“But I don’t have a job so I have no money to buy water,” she said.

Agnes Lehobye said she left home at 6am with her water buckets in a wheelbarrow on Monday.

“I found a water truck eventually and by the time I got home it was past 11am.”

Maureen Mamafha was one of the few lucky ones. Her husband has a car and a job in Centurion and has been filling water buckets every day at work.

“At least I don’t have to fight and wait in queues,” she said.

Mamafha has two small children and, she said, the school feeding scheme at her grade one daughter’s school had stopped this week.

“They can’t make food without water so I am sending my child with a lunchbox and some of the water that my husband brings.”

Many children were not going to school, she said.

Pensioner Klaas Kgasago lives with his two elderly brothers Charles and Hendrik on a road called Emfuleni, which ironically means “river”.

In his yard he had three buckets lined up for the household’s water needs.

“We were moved from Alexandra township many years ago and the government promised us a house. We have filled in forms six or seven times and they keep putting stickers on our door for a house, but nothing happens. We want a house with electricity and, most importantly, a tap,” he said.

Across the road at Hlongwane’s Kitchen and Tavern the water cut-off has been devastating.

Every day, Petros Hlongwane makes pap and meat as a take-away. He sells about 20 plates a day for R20 each. Since the water cut-off he has not had water to cook and has been turning away customers.

On Monday and Tuesday he had to close shop.

“There is nobody else here, just me. When that water truck comes I must run because I need water for my business. It has been very hard and I am losing a lot of money.”

Even a live chicken seller was battling. He asked to remain anonymous but explained his chickens couldn’t be given contaminated water because locals would not buy them.

“I have to run for water for my chickens, otherwise they will die of thirst,” he said.

According to the 2001 census Diepsloot covers an area of 8.58 square kilometres but has a population of 50 000. The majority of the community speak Sepedi or isiZulu.

Water-stressed South Africa needs to invest a massive R573 billion in water infrastructure, services and demand management over the next decade, but has budgeted for less than half this amount, government said on Monday.

This gap was a “significant shortfall”, water affairs chief operations officer Trevor Balzer told reporters at Parliament.

“If you look at [what is needed across] the total water value chain, you’re looking at a figure of R573 billion over 10 years.”

This included about R394 billion for water services; R162 billion for water resources infrastructure; and R16 billion for water demand management.

“If you look at the current budget allocations, taking into account all of the grant-funded programmes that National Treasury has put in place as well… our 10-year projection is that 44 percent is budgeted for. You’ve got a gap of 56 percent,” Balzer said.

The R573 billion total covered all departmental, municipal and water board infrastructure and services requirements, he said.

Water Affairs Minister Edna Molewa told journalists it was clear a “lot of money” was needed to meet the country’s growing demand for water.

Asked if above-inflation tariff increases to help fund this huge shortfall were now on the cards, she replied: “Probably.”

Molewa said that when a lot of money needed to be found, “it goes without saying that the cost is likely to be very high. And therefore the charges that have to be paid may also be high”.

The department was looking at standardising tariffs across the various sectors, and there was therefore a possibility of cross-subsidisation. This exercise would be completed by the end of the year, the minister said.

Proportional water use in South Africa at the moment breaks down as:

– Agriculture: about 62 percent;

– Domestic sector: about 27 percent, of which 23 percent goes to urban areas and four percent to rural areas;

– Mining: about 2.5 percent; and,

– Industry: about 10 percent, of which Eskom consumes about two percent and forestry about three percent.

There is also a provision for the environment — made in terms of the National Water Act — to ensure stream flows and protect ecosystems.

The different sectors pay different tariffs for the water they use.

Molewa suggested there was a possibility of either National Treasury or government subsidising the huge amounts of investment needed in water infrastructure and services, but said it was too early to pronounce on this because discussions were ongoing.

“It’s not possible for us to say at this point in time because we have to negotiate… to be able to say that if this is a commodity that’s needed by everybody to do development, and you’re charging for it way above inflation, for instance, that would strangle development.”

Molewa also said government was looking to the private sector to help fund the infrastructure her department needed.

This follows remarks she made last month, when she said her department was hoping to attract foreign investment to help revive its ageing water infrastructure.

A total of 43 wastewater treatment plants were under development in South Africa, and “if we co-funded, we could take the money saved and spend it elsewhere”.

Molewa said at the time that an ideal situation would be “going rand for rand” with private investors.

Balzer on Monday said that for new infrastructure, the department alone would need R230 billion over the next 10 years. It would also require “in the order of R96 billion” for the rehabilitation of existing infrastructure.

A statement tabled by Molewa on Monday, detailing progress made to date by a special task team appointed in June last year to advise on a turnaround strategy for the department, delivers what amounts to a stinging indictment of work carried out by her predecessors.

Among the challenges identified by the 13-member business process re-engineering committee, is that the sector is characterised by a “lack of leadership and management skills; administrative complexities due to multi-level governance; elitist and undemocratic decision-making processes; and… relatively poor institutional performance”.

Molewa appointed the team following the Auditor-General finding fault with the department’s water trading and main accounts.

On Monday, she announced a major project was underway to reorganise water affairs’ finance branch, which included the appointment of a new chief financial officer.